# CBAM Cost for Indian Steel Exporters: 2026 to 2034, Year by Year

Canonical: https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/cbam-compliance-cost-indian-steel-exporters-2026-2034

Updated 2026-10-11.

For 1,000 tonnes of Indian blast-furnace steel at 2.1 tCO2 per tonne, the estimated CBAM cost to the EU importer is about €51,000 in 2026 with verified data, rising to about €173,000 in 2034, at the Q3 2026 certificate price of €82.32. With default values instead, 2026 is about €68,000.

## At a glance (1,000 tonnes, €82.32 per certificate)

| Year | Free allocation kept | Verified actual (2.1 tCO2/t) | Default value + mark-up |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 | 97.5% | €50,874 | €68,161 |
| 2027 | 95% | €54,002 | €88,576 |
| 2028 | 90% | €60,258 | €112,120 |
| 2030 | 51.5% | €108,432 | €160,294 |
| 2032 | 26.5% | €139,714 | €191,575 |
| 2034 | 0% | €172,872 | €224,734 |

Figures come from the Senseible CBAM engine using an indicative EU benchmark of 1.52 tCO2 per tonne and a default intensity of 2.1 tCO2 per tonne before mark-up. The official product benchmark and default value for your exact CN code decide the real number.

## How each year is calculated

Certificates owed = embedded emissions − (EU benchmark × share of free allocation kept that year). Cost = certificates × certificate price. Two things raise the cost over time: the free-allocation share falls to zero by 2034, and the default-value mark-up rises from 10% in 2026 to 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028.

## Worked example: 2026, verified data

| Step | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Embedded emissions: 1,000 t × 2.1 | 2,100 tCO2 |
| Adjustment: 1.52 × 1,000 × 97.5% | 1,482 tCO2 |
| Certificates owed | 618 |
| × €82.32 | €50,874 |
| Per tonne of steel | ≈ €51 |

## What changes the number most

- **Production route.** Scrap-based electric arc furnace steel is often far below the benchmark, so it may owe little or nothing in early years. Coal-DRI and blast-furnace routes owe much more.
- **Verified vs default data.** The default value mark-up alone adds about €17 per tonne in 2026 in this example, and much more from 2028.
- **The certificate price.** Every €10 change in price moves the 2026 cost in this example by about €6,200.
- **Carbon price paid in India.** Only an amount effectively paid and documented can be deducted.

## What to do with this estimate

1. Run your own tonnage, route and intensity in the [CBAM cost calculator](https://senseible.earth/cbam-calculator).
2. Share the verified figure with your EU buyer before they budget for default values.
3. Use the 2030 and 2034 rows to price long-term contracts: the cost more than triples between 2026 and 2034 at today's price.

## Frequently asked questions

### Why is my 2026 cost so much higher than "2.5% of emissions"?

Because the 2.5% phase-out applies to the free-allocation benchmark, not to your emissions. Every tonne above the adjusted benchmark carries the full certificate price from 2026.

### Who pays this amount?

The EU importer, as an authorised CBAM declarant. In practice it shows up in the price negotiation with you.

### Which price should I use for planning?

The official CBAM certificate price for 2026 is the quarterly average of EU ETS auctions: €75.36 (Q1), €75.28 (Q2) and €82.32 (Q3). From 2027 it becomes a weekly average. Test a range.

### Does an EAF mill using scrap owe anything?

If its verified intensity is below the adjusted benchmark, the estimate is zero in early years. As free allocation falls, a cost appears, but it stays far below blast-furnace steel.

## Related

- [CBAM for Indian exporters](https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/cbam-compliance-indian-exporters)
- [Steel and aluminium CBAM checklist](https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/steel-aluminum-exporters-cbam-compliance-checklist)
- [CBAM default values vs actual emissions](https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/cbam-default-values-vs-actual-emissions-msme-decision-guide)
- [CBAM for steel manufacturers in India](https://senseible.earth/solutions/cbam-steel-india)

## Sources

- [Regulation (EU) 2023/956 (CBAM), consolidated text](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/956/2025-10-20)
- [Regulation (EU) 2025/2083 (CBAM simplification)](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2025/2083/oj)
- [Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621 (default values)](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2025/2621/oj/eng)
- [European Commission: CBAM definitive regime](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/cbam-definitive-regime_en)
- [European Commission: price of CBAM certificates](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/price-cbam-certificates_en)

## Related guides

- [Can we reroute supply chains to reduce CBAM exposure legally?](https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/reroute-supply-chains-reduce-cbam-exposure)
- [CBAM for Indian Exporters: What Changed on 1 January 2026](https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/cbam-compliance-indian-exporters)
- [BRSR Reporting Requirements in India: Who Reports, BRSR Core and Value-Chain Rules](https://senseible.earth/climate-intelligence/brsr-reporting-requirements-india)