How fast is EU free allocation phased out under CBAM, year by year?
The CBAM factor that sets how much free allocation is deducted falls from 97.5% in 2026 to 95% in 2027, 90% in 2028, 77.5% in 2029, 51.5% in 2030, 39% in 2031, 26.5% in 2032, 14% in 2033 and zero in 2034. As it falls, more of each tonne is charged.
CBAM factor by year
- 2026: 97.5%
- 2027: 95.0%
- 2028: 90.0%
- 2029: 77.5%
- 2030: 51.5%
- 2031: 39.0%
- 2032: 26.5%
- 2033: 14.0%
- 2034: 0%
How it enters the calculation
Certificates owed per tonne equal embedded emissions minus the specific embedded free allocation. With default values, that allocation is the CBAM factor times the cross-sectoral correction factor times the CBAM benchmark for the good.
Why 2030 is the step to plan for
The factor drops from 77.5% to 51.5% in one year. For a product near its benchmark, the cost per tonne can nearly double between 2029 and 2030 even if nothing at the plant changes.
What Senseible does here
Senseible reads coal, coke, gas, electricity and freight invoices into a dated, fingerprinted record per site, so an actual figure you send an EU buyer can be traced back to the documents behind it. It does not file CBAM declarations.
Last reviewed 2026-10-23.