How is the price of a CBAM certificate set?
It follows the EU Emissions Trading System auction price. For goods imported in 2026 the price is the average of each quarter's auction clearing prices; from 2027 it is set weekly. Certificates for 2026 imports go on sale in 2027, so the cost is known only after the quarter ends.
What drives the cost
- Embedded emissions per tonne of the good.
- The share not yet covered by free allocation in the EU, which phases out to 2034.
- The certificate price, minus any carbon price already paid in the country of production.
Who pays
The authorised CBAM declarant in the EU buys and surrenders certificates. Exporters feel it through price talks, which is why a lower actual figure can be worth more than a default value.
Planning
Model a range of prices rather than one number, and agree in the contract who bears the cost if the price moves.
What Senseible does here
Senseible reads fuel, electricity and production documents into dated, fingerprinted installation records, the starting point for the actual emissions an EU importer asks for.
Sources: European Commission, price of CBAM certificates, Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, CBAM simplification, CBAM Regulation (EU) 2023/956, consolidated
Last reviewed 2026-10-22.