CBAM Cost for Indian Steel Exporters: 2026 to 2034, Year by Year

Updated 2026-10-11.

For 1,000 tonnes of Indian blast-furnace steel at 2.1 tCO2 per tonne, the estimated CBAM cost to the EU importer is about €51,000 in 2026 with verified data, rising to about €173,000 in 2034, at the Q3 2026 certificate price of €82.32. With default values instead, 2026 is about €68,000.

At a glance (1,000 tonnes, €82.32 per certificate)

Year	Free allocation kept	Verified actual (2.1 tCO2/t)	Default value + mark-up
2026	97.5%	€50,874	€68,161
2027	95%	€54,002	€88,576
2028	90%	€60,258	€112,120
2030	51.5%	€108,432	€160,294
2032	26.5%	€139,714	€191,575
2034	0%	€172,872	€224,734

Figures come from the Senseible CBAM engine using an indicative EU benchmark of 1.52 tCO2 per tonne and a default intensity of 2.1 tCO2 per tonne before mark-up. The official product benchmark and default value for your exact CN code decide the real number.

How each year is calculated

Certificates owed = embedded emissions − (EU benchmark × share of free allocation kept that year). Cost = certificates × certificate price. Two things raise the cost over time: the free-allocation share falls to zero by 2034, and the default-value mark-up rises from 10% in 2026 to 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028.

Worked example: 2026, verified data

Step	Value
Embedded emissions: 1,000 t × 2.1	2,100 tCO2
Adjustment: 1.52 × 1,000 × 97.5%	1,482 tCO2
Certificates owed	618
× €82.32	€50,874
Per tonne of steel	≈ €51

What changes the number most

Production route. Scrap-based electric arc furnace steel is often far below the benchmark, so it may owe little or nothing in early years. Coal-DRI and blast-furnace routes owe much more.
Verified vs default data. The default value mark-up alone adds about €17 per tonne in 2026 in this example, and much more from 2028.
The certificate price. Every €10 change in price moves the 2026 cost in this example by about €6,200.
Carbon price paid in India. Only an amount effectively paid and documented can be deducted.

What to do with this estimate

Run your own tonnage, route and intensity in the CBAM cost calculator.
Share the verified figure with your EU buyer before they budget for default values.
Use the 2030 and 2034 rows to price long-term contracts: the cost more than triples between 2026 and 2034 at today's price.

Frequently asked questions

Why is my 2026 cost so much higher than "2.5% of emissions"?

Because the 2.5% phase-out applies to the free-allocation benchmark, not to your emissions. Every tonne above the adjusted benchmark carries the full certificate price from 2026.

Who pays this amount?

The EU importer, as an authorised CBAM declarant. In practice it shows up in the price negotiation with you.

Which price should I use for planning?

The official CBAM certificate price for 2026 is the quarterly average of EU ETS auctions: €75.36 (Q1), €75.28 (Q2) and €82.32 (Q3). From 2027 it becomes a weekly average. Test a range.

Does an EAF mill using scrap owe anything?

If its verified intensity is below the adjusted benchmark, the estimate is zero in early years. As free allocation falls, a cost appears, but it stays far below blast-furnace steel.